Fall frost probabilities by week

September 2, 2020 – Issue 25

What are the probabilities that your area will get a -2°C frost this week or next week? The following maps from AAFC demonstrate:

Click to enlarge.
Click to enlarge.

An AAFC study by Cutforth et al published in 2004 showed that the number of frost-free days were increasing on the Canadian Prairies, but the change varied by location.

Here’s the abstract for the study: The climate of the Prairies has warmed over the past century, especially during late winter and early spring. Some regions of the Prairies have warmed faster than others. Climate change has been documented to affect living systems in North America, such as promoting earlier phenological development and longer growing seasons. We examined weather records gathered at several long-term weather-recording sites across the agricultural regions of the Canadian Prairies for evidence of trends in last spring frosts, first fall frosts, and frost-free durations. During the latter half of the 20th century, the trends were towards earlier last spring frost dates and towards longer frost-free seasons in the agricultural regions of the Canadian Prairies. Across most of the Prairies the trends towards later first fall frost dates were smaller and generally not significant. The largest changes have occurred in the central and northern agricultural regions of Alberta, whereas the least change occurred over much of southern Alberta and in southern Manitoba.

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